We Know That We Don’t Know (Preview Stage 14) #TdF #TdF12

It’s not called a wall for nothing!

Cadel Evans’ aggressive riding late in Stage 13, and the subsequent carnage and one day style “balls to the wall” racing has assured us of one thing this Tour: we don’t know what’s next!  Today is a day with two large climbs a long way out from the finish, the second including ramps up to 18%, and peaking some 40km from the finish.  The descent ends about 20km from the line, and the whole stage is right by the southern coastline again, bringing wind into the equation.  Interestingly, about 30 of the final 40km will likely have a good tailwind, then the final loop around the finish town of Foix is likely to have 6km of cross-tailwind followed by 6km of cross-headwind.  Weather like that puts 36km of less disadvantage to those in the break (if that makes sense) followed by a very tough final 6km, with advantage to the peloton.  That alone means tonight will see unpredictable racing, and undoubtedly Cadel will look to – at the very least – put the pressure on Wiggo, and at best pinch a bit of time.

This is a stage made for a successful break, but the way that BMC are racing at the moment, who knows what will happen.  Undoubtedly a couple of blokes will get up the road, but the chances of them staying there are less than would normally be the case thanks to the aggression of the Evans-led team.  But who knows??  The beauty of sport is encapsulated in those three words I reckon!

Gerrans from Pineau (not Pinot) from Scarponi

Same, But SO Different (Stage 13) #TdF #TdF12

So if you looked at the result of last night and saw Greipel from Sagan from Boassen Hagen, you’d likely think “Aaah just another bunchie” – it was certainly the finale that I was expecting!  And was far from the finale that actually happened.

BMC took advantage of the stiff crosswinds and tough little wall 25km from the finish to send Cadel shooting off the front of the bunch.  Clearly they are still sniffing around to do some damage and hopefully get Cadel back into the race!  The result was no change for Evans, although he did blow the peloton to smithereens and made Sky work a lot harder than they otherwise would have

Atop  the climb there were only twenty or thirty riders still in contention, and when Alexandre Vinokourov attacked with Michael Albasini, the pressure was kept high, making it very difficult for any riders who were attempting to bridge up to the front bunch from closing the gap.  One group who did were the boys from Lotto Belisol, with the big fella (Greipel) in tow.

It then became a drag race between two very strong lads in front, and the Lotto train behind.  While the inevitable happened and they were caught a couple of km from the finish, the damage had been done, and the race was between the few who remained. Greipelh ad used all of his soldiers in shutting down the break, so had no train, and no one else was interested in delivering the few fast men there to the line.

And then the unheard of happened.

The Yellow Jersey lead out the sprint.  There are always anomalous times when the bloke who happens to be in yellow isn’t the leader of the team, so does some work for whoever it is that is the boss: Hushovd helping out Farrar last year for Garmin is an example, as is  Victor Pena riding for Lance back in 2003.  Neither man was any chance of winning the race at the end of the Tour.  That the Yellow Jersey rode for Boassen Hagen yesterday speaks volumes for the respect Wiggo has for him, and had he have set the Norwegian up for the win, would have paid back a lot of the work done throughout the race.

Greipel eventually won out over Sagan, with the latter consolodating his lead in the Green Jersey as Gossy didn’t get over the climb in touch with the lead bunch.  What a cracking finale to a stage that many would have penned in as a “boring” bunch sprint.

Back To Bunchies (Preview Stage 13) #TdF #TdF12

We’ve had a full week since the mad dog sprinters have had a chance to shine, and I would be astonished if we had to wait another day to see them

Sagan singing an opera at Gossy (thanks to Bettini photos)

all go head to head for the win. That is not to say that the sprinters have kept quiet: we’ve had Gossy be relegated for deviating from his line against Sagan (tough 50:50 decision); Sagan dragging Nibali up the road in an attack on the Sky Supertrain (bike racing brilliance); Ty Farrar suffering from multiple wounds and hopefully recovering enough to bop a win (hardman); and Cav keeping his mouth shut. Weird.

A break will skip away, Sky will let them clear on out of Dodge, then Lotto and GreenEdge will control the peloton to bring things back together for another crack at line honours.

Gossy will be that fired up after pumping Sagan twice in a day, yet losing points in the race for the Green that I reckon he’s the man for the win today. Second to be Greipel, third Cav.

Ugly Fans Rant #TdF #TdF12

I was reading the GreenEdge site this morning and saw that Whitey made mention of Australian fans abusing Richie Porte & Mick Rogers for the “sin” of riding “against” Cadel.  These people are idiots.  If Australian football was ever blessed with two players who were talented enough to be starters for Chelsea and Manchester United, would one be considered un-Australian (whatever that means) because he was playing against the other??

Lance & some intense fans

One of the many beauties of bike racing is that the fans can be so close the action as to see the superstars of the sport passing within metres of them.  This is also one of the great risks.  In the past the peloton has been shot at with a pellet gun (resulting in the most bizarre injury to any athlete in my care – Jules Dean ended up with a fingertip infection from being shot by a BB gun while riding the Tour de France); and Lance Armstrong was famously spat at during THAT Alpe D’Huez time trial back in 2004.

I would have hoped that Australian fans, with sport being such an integral part of the society in which they grew up, would have understood how sport works and been better than that.  Clearly not.

Mick Rogers and Richie Porte are riding FOR their team.  In the same way that a club level Rugby League player is not a traitor when they play FOR their state if they are lucky enough to play State Of Origin footy.  To any Aussie fans out there thinking Dodger and Richie are anything other than brilliantly performing athletes flying the flag for Australian cycling, wake up to yourselves.

Rant over.

A Deserved Win (Stage 12) #TdF # TdF12

Stage 12 was as close to a guaranteed breakaway stage as there is with it’s steeply lumpy early:flat late profile.  The sprinters lose too much time to be able to catch up and contest a bunch finish, but it is far too flat to result in any time gaps between the big hitters.

As always on days like this, the race to make the break of the day is fast and furious.  There are only four teams with realistic hopes of a podium finish, and there have been three different sprint teams to have won this year (and those three teams also have podium contenders –  Sky, Lotto & Liquigas).  Clearly there are other teams contesting sprint stages (such as Orica Greenedge), but after that, there are well over ten teams who have no real prospect of contesting for line honours if the day is exceedingly lumpy, or dead flat.

The make-up of the break and the amount of leeway they are given is determined more by the peloton than by the breakaway riders themselves: if for any reason a rider is deemed too dangerous to the hopes of one team or another, they will not be allowed to get away from the main group.  Peter Sagan’s attempt to get into the break being shut down by five blokes from Orica Greenedge sitting on the front of the peloton is an example of this.

That Dave Millar was one of the five, and that he eventually held his nerve and outsprinted his rivals for the win isn’t a massive surprise considering how good a bike rider, and racer that he is, but it was great to see a good man take a good win.  Congrats mate.

Time To Regroup (Stage 12 Preview) #TdF #TdF12

After the savagery of yesterday’s stage, today is very likely to be a neutral stage from the GC boys’ point of view.  There are big hills in it, but they are very early in the stage.  Hence those who played big roles late in the climb yesterday will likely be riding small, tucked into the bunch conserving energy.

One can only assume that everyone’s favourite Slovakian, Peter Sagan, will get himself into the break and win the stage.  The mountains may be just a little too steep for someone like Matty Goss to attempt, although I have no doubt he’ll try!

For mine, it’ll be Sagan from Hoogerland from Chavanel.  A quieter stage though.

No More Hiding (Stage 11) #TdF #TdF12

The first big mountain stage of the Tour has exposed the form of the riders who have intentions of finishing on the podium in the race.  The best five in the race to date have been Wiggins, Evans, Nibali, Froome and Van Den Broeck (VDB).

Bizarrely, Chris Froome is probably the best in the race right now: he completely cracked Cadel Evans AND (briefly) dropped his own team leader.  He finished off his unbelievable day by riding Wiggo and the other stars off his wheeel in the final 500m.

Vincenzo Nibali & VDB both had a little bit of leeway granted them with aggressive attacks early in the final climb, but they had their moves neutralised by (you guessed it) Froomey. Nibali showed he is climbing brilliantly, but similar to the Schlecks last year with Evans, he frankly can’t put any time into the stronger time triallist.

Sadly for Cadel Evans, today was a bad day.  He did as he needed to and attacked early in the stage, but didn’t look super convincing even then.  On the final climb with a couple of km to go he eventually popped under the strain of the amazing tempo ridden by Chris Froome.  He lost another 90-odd seconds on Wiggo, and will battle to recover from this to win the race.

Wiggins has, however, shown signs of potentially being cracked, so Nibali will retain his hopes of breaking clear of Wiggo in the Pyrenees.  The Italian’s hope will be that Chris Froome stays with Wiggo when (if) that happens so he can get some more time out of the best on ground!!

Pierre Rolland won the day, by the way, and looks a good show as a contender in years to come, but the big news is Cadel cracking.

Old School Climbing Test (Preview Stage 11) #TdF #TdF12

Stage 11 Profile: Love an ECG trace!

Today is the first “High” mountaintop finish.  Stage 7 was considered “Medium”, and looking at the pictures of the stage today, one can see why!  This is a short, mountainous stage that may well see fireworks from the big hitters.  When considering the terrain, there isn’t really any respite throughout the stage, and it is a virtual guarantee that Vincenzo Nibali, Jurgen van den Broeck and Cadel Evans will equally attempting to make things difficult for the SKY super team.

The big hope from all three will be to shed all but Froome from Wiggo’s side as quickly as possible, which means they’ll equally be dropping their own helpers (Richie Porte would be riding for gc if he was in any other team, and is the number three man for Sky!!)  The shortness of the stage, and the ease with which support staff will be able to feed and water them at the tops of climbs means that this won’t be a huge issue.  I am looking forward to seeing if Evans’ head to the side, pain face on, gruelling tempo comes out to play today (a la 2011 Stage 18) and if Wiggo can go with that pace for a long period of time.

What will also be interesting is seeing if the break has any real chance of getting away with so much at play for the big boys, and so high a chance that they will attack relatively early in the stage.  If I were Fred Kessiakoff going for the Polka-Dot Jersey, I’d sit on Voeckler’s wheel as he is all but guaranteed to attempt to collect the maximum points over the first climb, fully expecting to be gobbled up and spat out later in the race.  Go with him into the break, then attack him up the climb…  But that is just a minor subplot today – it’s all about Nibali & Evans vs Wiggo & Froomey.  Definitely one to stay up for, Antipodeans!!

My tips are VDB from Cadel from Froomey.

Slow Burn? (Stage 10) #TdF #TdF12

The stage today would have been earmarked as one for the break, and this it has turned out to be.    Two of the popular heroes of the Tour battled it out for the stage win: Thomas Voeckler and Jens Voigt took each other, and three other escapees on, with Voeckler using his cunning and power to take the stage in a very funny looking slow motion sprint.

In the race for the overall honours, Vincenzo Nibali and his team, Liquigas threw a well coordinated attack at Team Sky and Brad Wiggins on the descent after the first big climb of the Tour.  The net result for the big boys was no change as far as time is concerned, with the attack neutralised with aplomb by Richie Porte for Wiggo, but Nibali (and Cadel) will be hoping that they are sapping the strength from the Sky boys, and particularly Wiggo.

Cadel was content to allow Nibali and Wiggo to fight it out today, and hopefully (from the point of view of the race) he will have more to give tomorrow, laying the hurt down on tomorrow’s humdinger of a stage.  Has the slow burn started?  We shall see.

Will They or Won’t They? (Preview Stage 10) #TdF #TdF12

Stage 10 has the classic look of a day when they break will get away and stay away all through to the finish.  It is 194km long through high mountains, but the final 43km of the stage has 33km of descending in it.  This is the sort of stage that Thor Hushovd won on last year, and will see the usual breakaway specialists licking their lips at the prospect of a shot at a stage win.

There is, however, a huge “however” to this scenario.  Cadel and Nibali need to make up a lot of time on Wiggo if they’re going to challenge for the win.  They have two great hopes – firstly that they can ride him off their wheel on the climbs and then skip away from him; or secondly that they make the race so hard now that in the third week Wiggo weakens and they take their time back then.

I think it is still too early for them to be able to get away from him, but the possibility of Cadel and Nibali putting Wiggo into the hurt basket is rather high.  Look for attacks on the Grand Colombier, followed by aggressive descending, hard riding up the final (10km) climb of the day, and then desperate racing to the finish.  Will they go for it, or won’t they??  Will they be able to isolate Wiggo from his team (even a little)?   And finally, will they or won’t they catch the break that is bound to get away?

We shall see shortly, and it should be some great viewing!!  I am on the break sticking, with Millar sneaking home in front of a barnstorming Cadel, then Nibali.